Impossible_Arm7070

1 | 6 days ago

I’m really pissed that they got rid of jaylen Brown. He did such a great job last year. I think that was a real slap in the face! I hope Brad Stevens knows what the hell he’s doing. We’ll mis you JB!

TOMA_TAN

5 | 9 days ago

To the guy who talked about devin carter in the dd thread a few days ago, you were right

CarBallAlex

9 | 9 days ago

I keep coming back to the advanced numbers that we’re probably in for a great season

Last year we were 3rd in rebound%, and we added Mitchell Robinson (the best offensive rebounder in the league) and more Tatum who is a great rebounder. There’s a pretty decent chance we are the best rebounding team in the league.

And as far as turnover%, for the guys that played over 12 MPG, Brown at 10.8% was only ahead of team-worst Hugo at 11.3%. Paul George is at 8.5%, Mike Conley at 7.9%, Mitchell Robinson at 11.9%. Robinson isn’t going to be handling the ball that much, so we might improve or stay around the same in this stat as well, where we ranked 3rd. We’re good at not turning the ball over.

Every team since 1996-97 when the data started being tracked that has ranked top 5 in both rebound% and turnover%

2025-26 Celtics (56-26)

2023-24 Celtics (64-18)

2022-23 Knicks (47-35)

2017-18 Hornets (36-46)

2016-17 Pistons (37-45)

2010-11 Lakers (57-25)

2009-10 Lakers (57-25)

2008-09 Lakers (65-17)

2000-01 Raptors (47-35)

1999-00 Lakers (67-15)

1996-97 Bulls (69-13)

Now here’s some good teams, some mediocre/bad. However, if we look at the worst teams on the list, the 2017 Pistons, 2018 Hornets, 2001 Raptors and 2023 Knicks all ranked in the bottom half of the league in eFG%. They just couldn’t shoot with any kind of efficiency. If we look at the Celtics history, the years they ranked in the bottom half of the league in eFG% were 2019-20, 2015-16, 2014-15, 2013-14, 2006-07, 2002-03, 1999-00, 1997-98 and 1996-97

Unless you believe this year’s team is worse than the Rick Pitino/Jim O’Brien years, or when we traded away Pierce and Garnett before we got Tatum and Brown, I don’t see how if this team performs on the margins like we expect them to that this is under a 50 win season if healthy, and maybe closer to 55. Which isn’t that crazy considering we won 56 last year. 2019-20 we went 48-24 which is about 54-55 wins in a full 82 game season.

I think there’s a decent chance you get some 3P shooting regression from the young guys (they shot really well last year) purely from variance, but even then, I don’t think it’s crazy to say 50 wins is perfectly reasonable. 50 wins, in any normal year, should be a top 5 seed.

For anyone expecting this team to be a play-in team, I think it would honestly take injuries (Mitchell Robinson and Paul George out more than half the year, Tatum resting more games or dealing with more injuries, some freak long-term injury to like White or Pritchard), or we just regress on our expected margins (inexplicably turn the ball over, can’t rebound, can’t hit shots).

Celtics preseason win total is 51.5, which I think is extremely accurate

I’m not concerned about the regular season. They’ll get through it. We just need to probably restructure the team for the playoffs, so I think we’re in for a big move at the deadline, and if it’s not there, we will be extremely aggressive next summer.

HawkEgg

1 | 8 days ago

With JT back, we should be better than last year, though worse than if we hadn’t traded JB

King_Of_Pants

7 | 9 days ago

On your turnovers point, this table is pretty cool to see.

All 4 of our leading ball-handlers for next season are in the bottom left quadrant. No one else has 3.

And Mitchell Robinson is going to be super interesting to see. Here are his DARKO rankings for the Knicks over the past several seasons: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st.

Similar to Jaylen Brown (but in reverse), the analytics love him to an absurd degree and it’ll be a cool test to see that holds up on a different team.

I think there’s a decent chance you get some 3P shooting regression from the young guys

Considering how strict Joe has been with them, I’m not so sure.

We might not see a huge improvement in terms of actual shooting ability, but survivorship bias will have a huge impact on the results we get.

We’re only going to see these guys on their good days.

TatumBrownWhite

5 | 9 days ago

big move at the deadline

I think any kind of explosive moves as far as the future of the team are more likely to come next summer, I was going to write this in a separate comment, but may as well do it here – two situations I’d be interested in monitoring are where there is either role duplication or salary issues coming for said team and that’s Orlando with Franz/Paolo if they break up, and Utah with Markkanen/Ace Bailey as two players who are of the same mold.

Could the next iteration of the team be built around Tatum/Franz/Lauri/PP with Queta, Walsh, Baylor, Hugo, Harper and hopefully Cenac on cheap deals to round out the margins?

Only deadline move I could think of would be if New Orleans gets religion and moves Trey Murphy, but I think we’d get outbid on that one (Atlanta is the one I keep coming back to, but also San Antonio and others).

King_Of_Pants

3 | 9 days ago

I feel like we’re definitely behind Philly and Miami for the Butler sweeps.

Can’t lean on the old Butler/Brown connection after trading Brown either.

Utah with Markkanen/Ace Bailey as two players who are of the same mold

I think that’s intentional, and they’re building a team that potentially has absurd on-paper synergy.

They’ve got a lot of guys who want to score off-ball, and then 2-3 guards who probably want the ball in their hands. Their spacing should be absurd and an absolute dream situation for a guard who wants to rack up assists.

TatumBrownWhite

2 | 9 days ago

I just think they’re going to run into a logjam where too much usage/role/shots is going to come from 3 players in 2 positions between Lauri, JJJ, and Ace Bailey, and there’s only room for 2 of them long term.

They don’t have that problem yet and probably not for another year or two, just think it’s worth looking at if they want to get ahead of that problem.

And yeah my Butler dream is dead, OP makes a good point that they’ll keep him around for the same reason we’re keeping PG.

I feel like we’re definitely behind Philly and Miami for the Butler sweeps.

I don’t get this part though, his breakups with both of those places was less than ideal, and the Knicks fired Thibs who was his guy. If anything, I think he would be interesting in coming here to spite both of those places. His agent, Bernie Lee, also famously thinks highly of Mazzulla as you noted as he’s the guy who had Ben Simmons as a client briefly.

SoaplessTitanic

1 | 9 days ago

I don’t have a ton to add but I really like the White to PG and Jrue to Butler analogy. I’m also really curious what the long term plan is in terms of cap navigation. It feels like Lauri’s and Franz’s contracts take up a bit too much of the cap, and Brad’s recent moves seem to indicate he doesn’t want a lot of big contracts. I know those two guys aren’t making the super max or anything, but it still seems a little limiting to bring them on. I guess we’ll see, maybe we are just trying to reset the repeater tax or whatever and then we’ll go all in on some big contracts again

TatumBrownWhite

1 | 9 days ago

I edited out the Jimmy stuff as I didn’t realize that Kerr had signed on for 2 years and not 1, so there’s not really a reason to buyout Jimmy if you are the Warriors unless you are letting Steph go, which I thought might happen, but they will probably re-up for 1 additional year is the more likely outcome.

Would be cool to have Jimmy on the team though, he’d have been a great Celtic, him and Joe would have bonded over their shared competitiveness.

It feels like Lauri’s and Franz’s contracts take up a bit too much of the cap, and Brad’s recent moves seem to indicate he doesn’t want a lot of big contracts. I know those two guys aren’t making the super max or anything, but it still seems a little limiting to bring them on. I guess we’ll see, maybe we are just trying to reset the repeater tax or whatever and then we’ll go all in on some big contracts again

Yeah this is the kind of plan you probably make under the old CBA, but I just don’t see the pathway for being a viable championship contender again unless you make the kind of moves where you get 2 star level players again around Jayson like we had with JB and KP. This was my attempt to replicate that, but maybe it’s no longer possible, they would account for a lot of the cap as you’re saying.

CarBallAlex

3 | 9 days ago

I think with the logjam at wing currently (Tatum, George, Hauser, Scheierman, Walsh, Gonzalez, Harper) it’s more likely we trade one of these guys than add to the position. Warriors will not buy out Butler for the same reason we want to hang on to George, he can be flipped for an expensive player if a team is blowing it up.

I’d argue the Warriors have a more lucrative package of Butler (hurt, not going to contribute to winning, easy expiring to absorb) and future picks since Curry is so old. The Celtics are probably next in line because of George’s contract, but I don’t get why the Warriors would just buy out Butler when they’re trying to still win with Curry. If anything, a Butler buyout means the Warriors are moving on from Curry, in which case count me in on him instead of Butler.

I think the Celtics wind up moving one of the young wings for picks (even if it’s 2nd’s) to sweeten the pot for a big Paul George trade while still retaining some assets). They have 15 guys under contract and 3 two-way players. They can’t simply just add a buyout guy, someone would have to be gone anyway. I wouldn’t get too attached to all of the young wings, it feels like a high probability one of them is gone by the end of the year.

TatumBrownWhite

1 | 9 days ago

but I don’t get why the Warriors would just buy out Butler when they’re trying to still win with Curry. If anything, a Butler buyout means the Warriors are moving on from Curry, in which case count me in on him instead of Butler.

Well this was all based on a false premise on my part as I thought Kerr signed a 1-year contract, but I just looked it up and stand correct that he signed a 2-year contract. In my eyes, if they sucked this year, there would have been an acceptance that it’s just best for everyone (Steph included) to move on and do a full reset, and Butler could have helped us in the immediate for a single potential fluke playoff push if we’re as good of a regular season team as we think. But the second year of Kerr’s contract means they’ll probably sign up again for 1 more year, and either keep him or flip him like we’re doing with PG.

15 guys under contract

Is this including Carter? I thought we had 14. I think it’s more likely he takes a two-way.

But regardless I think it’s not one of the young wings that gets moved, it’s more likely Hauser IMO, would make sense to cash in whilst his value will be at its highest and whilst Queta is effectively taking his salary slot going forward.

AWalker17

1 | 9 days ago

I think the Celtics wind up moving one of the young wings for picks (even if it’s 2nd’s) to sweeten the pot for a big Paul George trade while still retaining some assets)

Was it you that posted the statistics outlining which Celtics were outperforming their contracts a while back? It was a site/stat I’d never seen before and something I definitely think worth paying attention to regarding your comment above. After the Jaylen Brown trade, I’m more sold than ever that those types of stats are what the Celtics are relying heavily on these days.

Tatum-Better

0 | 9 days ago

i think we’d have a worse record not because the team is worse but because the east is alot better

King_Of_Pants

4 | 9 days ago

It is and it isn’t.

Like the Knicks probably got worse if we’re being honest. They didn’t really add anyone, and Mitch was a bit of an x-factor for them. The analytics seemed to think he was a top 2 player for them in most seasons.

The Pistons tried to add some shooting, but their C position looks a lot weaker right now. Isaiah Stewart got hurt at the end of the season, and they effectively salary-dumped him. Duren’s situation can’t be good for the team.

The Cavaliers lost their dirty work players. I don’t mind the Watson addition but Wade, Schroder and Strus were pretty underrated for them. They’re going to struggle hiding their stars with all that depth leaving.

burner_for_celtics

2 | 9 days ago

I also think that we will most likely have a worse record, and I don’t think the East is better than it was. I think that we had very good fortune last year with respect to health and injuries (Tatum aside).

I’m ok with the theory that next year’s team ought to be better on the court because it’s basically the same team with Tatum swapped in for Brown. BUT that team was lucky last year and this year were are going to play a riskier hand.

CarBallAlex

2 | 9 days ago

The East is better, but you have to also consider the flaws of other teams.

Knicks - do Brunson and KAT play 70+ games again?

Heat - Is Giannis going to miss time?

76ers - how much does Embiid play?

Pistons - how do the Pistons perform after losing depth and if Duren’s contract negotiations cause conflict internally?

Cavaliers - I think everyone is really underestimating how decimated their bench has become. Their first 3 off the bench are Craig Porter Jr, Sam Merrill and Thomas Bryant. That’s going to be hard to sustain consistent wins for 82 games.

The Magic never seem to hit 50 wins, the Hornets have depth but not a guy they can rely on every night, and the Wizards are trotting out a team that has never played together before with an injury prone Center.

I think the Raptors will be really good if the Kawhi trade goes through, and Atlanta will be good, but are they 50+ win good? Indiana really depends on Haliburton and how he looks.

So yes the East is better but are we getting every team’s best shot every night? It’s not like the East was bad last year. The Pistons were really good, the Knicks clearly had a great team, the Cavs were basically the same team with a better bench, and the Hornets came out blazing the 2nd half of the year where everyone didn’t want to play them in the playoffs. Not to mention ¹⁄₃ of the season was against a stronger West. Thunder, Spurs, Lakers, Nuggets, Wolves, Rockets were all really strong teams. And people had the Mavs and Blazers as decent teams on paper before the year. Yet we still found a way to win 56 games. When teams have guys out, or you get a rest advantage against a team that’s taking a night off, it’s not the same as evaluating a team at full strength in a 7 game playoff series.

The East will be harder to win in the playoffs. It will not be significantly harder to still win a lot of games in the regular season. All the teams I listed above have to play one another too, it’s not just the Celtics. How many games do the Cavs win when they have to go through New York, Toronto, Philly, Indiana, Boston, Detroit, and Miami too? You aren’t going to see 8 teams win 50+ games.

SoaplessTitanic

1 | 9 days ago

I agree with most of what you’re saying, but it still feels like there’s a good chance for us to have a worse record than last year. And that’s fine. I think a better way to say it is we shouldn’t be a much different seed than last year. The betting odds right now for win totals at the top of the East are the Knicks, us, then Philly, all separated by just one expected win. So we are expected to be the two seed by this metric (and even have a good shot at the one seed), but we’re also expected to have a somewhat significantly lower win total.

I think the east will be a bit better this year, but more at the bottom and less at the top. There will likely be less tanking teams for a variety of reasons, but I think you correctly pointed out that the top of the east really isn’t that intimidating in terms of the regular season

TatumBrownWhite

4 | 9 days ago

As somebody who lives 10 minutes from the Friars, it’s cool to see Devin Carter land with the Cs. Had always hoped Kris Dunn would find his way here. Shoutout Ryan Gomes for the OGs.

AWalker17

1 | 9 days ago

Oh man. That took me back. I was actually doing some editing for DraftExpress during Ryan Gomes’s draft year. I remember because JG was struggling with who to put as his comp and I suggested Jared Dudley.

Wayne_Spooney

4 | 9 days ago

Bought a Ryan Gomes Shirsey at Dicks Sporting goods at the Hampshire mall in 2007 because he wasn’t “good enough to get traded.”

I’m an idiot

Daily Discussion Thread - September 14, 2026